The US claiming Iran’s Missile capability is destroyed, but how Iran still attacking

Experts believe that Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been greatly reduced due to the joint aggression by the United States and Israel. However, they also say that Tehran still has some military capabilities left, which allow it to cause significant damage.

Last Saturday, the White House said, “Iran’s ballistic missile capability has effectively been destroyed. Their navy is no longer in a position to continue fighting. We have complete dominance over Iran’s airspace.”

On February 28, the United States and Israel began a joint military offensive in Iran. The operation was named “Operation Epic Fury.” On Saturday, the White House also stated that this military operation is producing major results.

In the last Sunday, Donald Trump said that U.S. forces have almost completely destroyed Iran’s drone production capability. On the Monday afternoon, Qatar announced that it had intercepted another missile launched from Iran.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain issued warnings about missile attacks. In Abu Dhabi, one person was killed when a missile hit a car.

So, has Iran’s missile capability really been significantly reduced? If it has, then how is Iran still launching missiles at neighboring countries and Israel?

Is Iran Still Launching Missiles

Yes. Since the start of the war, the number of missiles and drones Iran has used in retaliatory attacks on Gulf countries, Israel and other regional states has decreased significantly.

In the first 24 hours of the conflict, Iran launched 167 missiles (both ballistic and cruise) toward the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, it sent 541 drones.

However, by the 15th day of the war, that number dropped sharply. According to Al Jazeera, on that day Iran launched only four missiles and flew six drones. This information was taken from a statement by the UAE Ministry of Defense.

The intensity of attacks toward Israel has also decreased. Around 100 missiles were launched in the first two days of the war. In recent days, that number has fallen to single digits, according to the Institute for National Security Studies.

A key point is that without sending ground troops, it would be very difficult to completely eliminate Iran’s missile-launching capability. Even with near-total control of the airspace, the United States and Israel cannot fully stop it. That is why Iran is still using parts of its existing system. ~ by David Des Roches (Associate Professor at National Defense University)

Last week, the Pentagon said that missile attacks have decreased by 90% and drone attacks by 86% compared to the first day of the war.

A 2022 U.S. intelligence review stated that Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, although the exact number has not been officially disclosed. According to Israeli intelligence estimates, Iran had about 3,000 missiles. After last year’s 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, that number dropped to around 2,500.

One major focus of U.S. and Israeli strategy is locating Iran’s missile launchers. Each missile launch creates signals, including large explosions, which can be detected by satellites and radar systems.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, about 290 out of 410–440 launchers have been disabled.

However, Iran is a very large country. Experts say that without ground operations, it is extremely difficult to completely destroy its missile capabilities. Even with air superiority, it cannot be fully achieved. That is why Iran continues to operate its remaining systems.

According to analysts, the main reason behind the slowdown in Iran’s missile launches is the reduced ability to fire many missiles at once. Instead of large-scale attacks, Iran is now launching one or two drones at a time. Rather than targeting major military sites, it is attacking civilian and commercial infrastructure in Gulf countries.

Experts describe this as harassment attacks – actions meant to repeatedly trigger defense systems, wear them down, and create fear among the population.

Which strategy the Iran’s become following

Analysts say Tehran’s main calculation is that the defensive capabilities of Gulf countries and Israel may be exhausted before Iran runs out of missiles.

They believe Iran is focusing on a “war of patience,” launching fewer but consistent attacks over time.

Even though some launchers and major missile bases have been destroyed, Iran has decentralized its system. It now relies more on mobile launchers, which are much harder to detect and target.

Experts say this is a race against time.

They also note that Iran believes it still has opportunities. The number of missiles or drones is not as important as whether they create a credible threat. Even a single successful drone can break the perception of security.

Iran has long experience in producing cheap but effective drones. The Shahed-136 drone, for example, can be produced quickly in large numbers in ordinary factories. These drones can be launched in swarms, confusing enemy air defense systems.

The Shahed-drones (136) require no special launch system; they travel at approximately 185 km/hr and can be shot down by helicopters. However, there have been numerous instances of drones being able to breach air defence systems of Israel, the USA and the Gulf Region's Infrastructure.

Just yesterday, a drone attack near Dubai International Airport caused a fire and temporarily disrupted flights. Another drone attack caused a fire in the Fujairah industrial area. Sirens were also activated in central Israel warning of incoming Iranian missiles.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s energy supply passes, has become tense. Hundreds of ships are stalled due to fears of attacks, even though actual attacks on ships have been limited. A maritime tracker has recorded 20 ship-related incidents since the war began.

The experts say this reflects Iran’s strategy of asymmetric warfare. Since it is militarily weaker, it targets critical infrastructure using unconventional methods to cause economic damage.

Iran has already contributed to pushing global oil prices above $100 per barrel and creating panic in the market. Qatar has halted gas production. Bahrain’s state oil company has stopped shipments and oil production in southern Iraq has dropped by 70%.

Some analysts believe that if Iran can further increase oil prices, it could cause damage to the United States equal to or even greater than the losses caused by U.S. bombing in Iran.

Opinion

According to our opinion, Iran's ongoing attack within this conflict is not limited to just its own domestic power. Rather, Iran seems to have multiple sources of indirect support from large global powers who are secretly providing strategic, technological, or economic assistance. Therefore, without any such outside influence, Iran would not be able to maintain a protracted war on this basis and would not be able to protect its national stability without outside assistance.

While Iran still has some independent military capability, its ability to continue pressure and maintain strategic balance suggests that hidden support plays an important role in extending its endurance in this war.